Guest Author: Adil Yildiz
Adil Yildiz is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of Mississippi, Oxford, in the United States. Previously, he completed his master’s degree in European and Global Studies at the University of Padova in Italy. His research interests are diverse, but include political institutions, social movements, human rights violations and abuses, and international affairs.
The success and efficacy of social movements in influencing policy changes typically originates from their reliance on garnering support from other political and social entities. In the absence of such support, sustaining mobilisation becomes challenging, often resulting in dissolution over time. Therefore, social movements necessitate substantial public backing to amplify their impact and ensure their voices are heard. This necessity represents a legitimate and potent means of driving policy change. The Yellow Vests Movement, as proven impactful on French public policy, is a practical example of how social movements raise public support and leverage power holders to drive effective policy changes.
Yellow Vests Movement (Mouvement des Gilets jaunes)
The Yellow Vests Movement was a grassroots social movement consisting of regular protests that began in France on November 17, 2018, attracting nearly a million people who participated in mass demonstrations.[1] The movement was sparked by rising fuel prices and a high cost of living, coupled with the perception that the government’s tax reforms disproportionately burdened the working and middle class.[2] Consequently, protestors demanded lower fuel taxes, the reinstatement of the solidarity tax on wealth, an increase in the minimum wage, and the implementation of Citizens’ Initiative Referendums. These protests took various forms, including road blockades and disruptions at fuel depots. Within a short period, the movement garnered significant international attention, not only through social media and newspapers but also as a symbol adopted by a large number of people, known as the ‘yellow vests’.[3]
A Protest Event Analysis (PEA) of the Yellow Vest Movement: Insights into its Structure and Dynamics
The Yellow Vest Movement emerged as a response to specific grievances, initially driven by economic injustices but evolving into broader political discontent, particularly targeting the Emmanuel Macron government. Its agenda centred around anti-governmental, political, and economic issues. Although the movement succeeded in its initial demand to scrap the fuel tax rise, it persisted in advocating for further reforms, including a fairer income tax system and improved public services. Despite primarily economic concerns, the movement also addressed broader social issues (see Figure 1).
Participants in the movement varied, including students protesting education reforms, workers voicing concerns about low income and unemployment, and motorists initially comprising the majority. While the movement lacked explicit political alliances, it engaged with institutional channels to voice demands, emphasising its political stance on economic justice. Demonstrations were the predominant form of protest, with mass gatherings and occasional road blockades occurring mainly in major French cities, notably Paris. The movement peaked in November and December 2018 before undergoing a shift towards incorporating politically oriented motivations alongside its economic goals.[4]
Interestingly, the movement emerged without significant support from established political figures or parties, highlighting its grassroots nature. Despite this, it resonated strongly with public sentiment, leading to a notable response from the French government. The Protest Event Analysis (PEA) indicated a lack of substantial political or ideological links with elite figures yet suggesting that the movement stemmed from and amplified public sentiment rather than being orchestrated by political allies.[5]
Figure 1. Specific Issues and Targets of the Yellow Vests Movement[6]
The Role of Public Opinion in the Policy Impact of the Yellow Vests Movement
Social movements aim to raise public awareness and concern about specific issues, often mobilising individuals to influence policy processes. However, they encounter various challenges, ranging from organisational hurdles to institutional constraints. Priscillia Ludosky played a pivotal role in the inception of the Yellow Vests Movement, inadvertently sparking it by initiating an online petition on May 29, 2018. This petition advocated for lower taxes, reduced salaries and pensions for public officials, and the implementation of citizens’ initiative referendums.[7] Garnering nearly a million signatures, the petition galvanised individuals with shared interests to mobilise against French public policies. Consequently, they began engaging with governmental actors at the highest levels to pressure them into reforming targeted policies in line with their demands. This engagement facilitated their access to the French institutional arena, granting them a platform for influencing decision-making processes.
“Social movements necessitate substantial public backing to amplify their impact and ensure their voices are heard. This necessity represents a legitimate and potent means of driving policy change.”
In every electoral competition, political incumbents and elites carefully navigate public opinion to preserve their power for electoral gains. France operates as a representative democracy, where citizens directly or indirectly elect officials in the legislative and executive branches. This dynamic means that shifts in public sentiment serve as early warnings for political actors, prompting adjustments in their behaviour to align with electoral ambitions. According to the Democracy Index 2019 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), France experienced improvements in its level of democracy, transitioning from a “flawed democracy” to a “full democracy” category in the rankings.
The EIU report identifies this transition in relation to the Yellow Vests Movement. As it reveals, in response to the widespread “gilets jaunes” protests fuelled by grievances over economic stagnation and a perceived government disconnect, France initiated a “national debate” from January to March. Facilitated by mayors and conducted both in person and online, the debate aimed to provide citizens with a platform to voice their concerns within the democratic framework. This initiative resulted in two million responses, which were incorporated into “Act II” of the government’s reform agenda, leading to a reduction in social unrest. Additionally, a similar series of future town hall meetings was planned to maintain political engagement.[8]
Figure 2. The Breakdown of Public Opinion on the Yellow Vests Movement in France from November 2018 to March 2019[9]
Among various factors, demonstrations and protests influence public opinion, which in turn shapes the trajectory of social movements and their potential impact on policy changes. One can observe a clear breakdown of public opinion on the Yellow Vests Movement in Figure 2 from November 2018 to March 2019, indicating a gradual decrease in support for the movement with a significant shift. Initially characterised by joint mass actions, the number of people participating in demonstrations dwindled from nearly a million to tens of thousands.[10] Concurrently, the attention of political elites towards the movement waned over time. As the influence of the movement decreased, political elites no longer perceived the risk of losing re-election due to neglecting the dwindling support base of the movement.
The Yellow Vests Movement did not originate or propagate in affiliation with a specific political party or trade union but rather burgeoned through social media channels.[11] Media coverage played a crucial role in raising awareness among the public about the issues raised by the movement. Consequently, when public support for the movement was still high, the French government responded by scrapping the planned fuel tax rise from the 2019 budget after weeks of protests and demonstrations.[12] Hence, it is evident that the policy shift resulted from an interactive process involving the Yellow Vests Movement, public opinion, and political power holders. Moreover, the impact of the movement on policy change was not direct but mediated by public opinion.
Dynamics of Public Support
In sum, the influence of the Yellow Vests Movement in shaping public policy in France can be attributed to two key factors: the strategic use of social media and the grassroots domination of the national debate. However, to fully understand the impact of these factors, it is essential to consider the timeline of events and the dynamics of public support for the movement.
Public support for the Yellow Vests Movement initially surged (see Figure 2), driven by widespread grievances over economic inequality and government policies (see Figure 1). This support facilitated the movement’s ability to pressure the French government into addressing its demands, as evidenced by the scrapping of the planned fuel tax rise from the 2019 budget following weeks of protests and demonstrations.
However, over time, public and activist support for the movement began to wane (see Figure 2). This decline was influenced by various factors, including internal divisions within the movement, the rise of far-right elements, the dissemination of misinformation, and a natural loss of organisational strength over time.[13] Importantly, this decrease in public backing occurred significantly after the government’s decision to retract the tax reform on December 5. As Figure 2 shows, the breaking point of public support for the Yellow Vests Movement happened between December and January 2018, with a 24% decrease from 42% to 32%, marking the sharpest change over the course of the movement.
The timing of the decline in public support is crucial for understanding its implications for both politicians and the Yellow Vests Movement. As public support dwindled, politicians may have perceived less risk in ignoring the demands of the movement, leading to decreased responsiveness to their grievances. Conversely, for the Yellow Vests Movement, diminishing public support meant a loss of leverage in influencing policy decisions and garnering political attention.
“The influence of the Yellow Vests Movement in shaping public policy in France can be attributed to two key factors: the strategic use of social media and the grassroots domination of the national debate.”
In other words, as the fervor of public support faded away, a subtle yet crucial shift occurred in the dynamics between the Yellow Vests Movement, the general public, and politicians. In parallel, the diminishing presence of impassioned crowds on the streets signalled more than just a decrease in visible momentum; it mirrored a waning resonance of voices echoing through the corridors of power. The relationship between visible or disappearing movement momentum and increased or reduced support and attention from both the public and important political figures unravels a delicate balance between citizen engagement and governmental responsiveness.
While the use of social media and grassroots activism were instrumental in initially galvanising support and shaping the national debate, the decline in public backing highlights the importance of maintaining momentum and adaptability for social movements to sustain their influence over time. Understanding the chronological sequence of events provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics between political actors and social movements, shedding light on the strategies employed by both sides to navigate shifting public sentiment and policy priorities.
Conclusion
The Yellow Vests Movement had a significant impact on French public policy, particularly evidenced by the scrapping of the planned fuel tax rise. Originating in November 2018, the movement gained momentum rapidly, drawing nearly a million participants to mass demonstrations fuelled by grievances over economic hardship and perceived governmental neglect. Despite its lack of affiliation with any particular political party or trade union, the movement spread internationally,[14] resonating with diverse groups protesting tax injustice and other social issues. Its influence was notable in other countries as well. Protest actions echoing the Yellow Vests’ demands were observed in Italy, Belgium, Poland, Egypt, and Taiwan.
However, as time progressed, fewer people and activists supported the movement. It is important to highlight that this decline in support coincided particularly after the government decided to cancel the tax changes, showing that people’s opinions and orientation were shifting with the policy change. With less support from the public, the movement had less power to influence politicians and get attention, with its leverage fading away. This highlights the significance of public support for movements to maintain their momentum and continue making an impact.
Correspondence address: ayildiz@go.olemiss.edu
References
[1] Nossiter, A. (2018). Tear Gas and Water Cannons in Paris as Grass-Roots Protest Takes Aim at Macron. The New York Time [online]. 24 November 2018, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/24/world/europe/france-yellow-vest-protest.html; McKay, H. (2018). France’s ‘yellow vest’ protesters rage on for fifth weekend. Fox News [online]. 16 December 2018, Available at: https://www.foxnews.com/world/frances-yellow-vest-protesters-rage-on-for-fifth-weekend.
[2] Willsher, K. (2018). Paris under siege as gilets jaunes open ‘Act IV’ – a fourth weekend of protest. The Observer. [online] 8 December 2018, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/08/paris-under-siege-gilets-jaunes-open-act-iv-fourth-weekend-protests.
[3] Henley, J. (2018). How hi-vis yellow vest became symbol of protest beyond France. The Guardian [online]. 21 December 2018. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/how-hi-vis-yellow-vest-became-symbol-of-protest-beyond-france-gilets-jaunes.
[4] Yildiz, A. (2024). From Streets to Policies: The Impact of Yellow Vests Movement on French Public Policy. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4765783 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4765783.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Lichfield, J. (2019). Just who are the gilets jaunes? The Guardian [online]. 9 February 2019, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/09/who-really-are-the-gilets-jaunes.
[8] The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2020). Democracy Index 2019, A year of democratic setbacks and popular protest. London: EIU, p. 48.
[9] IFOP, Fiducial, Sud Radio, & CNews. (2019, April). Breakdown of public opinion on the ‘yellow vests’ movement in France from November 2018 to March 2019. Statista. Statista Inc. https://www.statista.com/.
[10] Ibid.
[11] Walt, V. (2018). ‘There Is an Atmosphere of Civil War.’ France’s Yellow Jackets Are Driving Fury at Macron. TIME [online]. 30 November 2018, Available at: https://time.com/5468025/emmanuel-macron-yellow-jackets-civil-war/.
[12] Agence France-Presse (AFP), & Reuters. (2018). French government scraps fuel tax hike. DW. [online] 5 December 2018, Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/french-government-scraps-fuel-tax-hike-after-yellow-vest-protests/a-46606137.
[13] Baralon, M. (2018). Comment les “gilets jaunes” ont bouleversé les codes de la contestation. Europe1 (in French). [online] 19 November 2018. Available at: https://europe1.fr/politique/comment-les-gilets-jaunes-ont-bouleverse-les-codes-de-la-contestation-3803714; Le Cain, B. (2018). Les ‘gilets jaunes’, un mouvement sans leader dans lequel les ‘fake news’ prospèrent. Le Figaro (in French). [online]. 30 November 2018, Available at: https://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2018/11/30/01016-20181130ARTFIG00321-les-gilets-jaunes-un-mouvement-sans-leader-dans-lequel-les-fake-news-prosperent.php.
[14] Beswick, E. (2018). ‘Gilets jaunes’: which other countries has the French protest movement spread to? 12 May 2018. Available at: https://www.euronews.com/2018/12/05/gilets-jaunes-which-other-countries-has-the-french-protest-movement-spread-to.